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Chinese economy still faces deflation pressure
www.chinanews.cn 2006-05-17 08:39:06
Chinanews, May 16 - "As the consumer price index (CPI) in urban areas
will stay at a comparatively low level, deflationary trend still exists
in China in 2006." This is the overall assessment of the Chinese economy
this year by Tsinghua University's Center for China in the World Economy
(CCWE) on May 13.
CCWE researcher Yuan Gangming indicated that judging by the situation in
the first quarter of this year, the Chinese economy was hot but did not
go beyond the limit.
According to statistics by China's Central Bank, the country used half of
this year's loan quotas in the first quarter. The overly rapid growth of
loans caused by the increase of fixed-asset investment has drawn China's
attention. Not long ago, the National Development and Reform Commission
and the Central Bank respectively published policies to adjust overheated
industries and raised lending rates, in an effort to jointly control
package loans extended by local governments.
At the end of last year, CCWE predicted that this year's CPI would be
0.01%, indicating a serious trend of deflation. As statistics of the
first quarter came out, this center obviously raised the estimated figure
of 2006 CPI to 2.41%. Besides, the center raised its estimated 2006 GDP
growth rate from 8.98% at the end of last year to 9.5%, which is
consistent with the latest forecast by the World Bank.
Other statistics by the World Bank show that in the first quarter,
China's added 1.26 trillion RMB (US$157.5 billion) in loans, accounting
for more than 50% of the planned 2.5 trillion RMB for the whole year.
About half of this quarter's new loans were for real estate development
in Jan. and Feb. The World Bank quoted relevant statistics and indicated
that China's housing prices in this period kept rising while the vacancy
rate also went up.
As to the above figures, Mr. Aloysius Louis G. Kuijs, senior economist of
the World Bank Group Beijing Office, pointed out that China's newly built
housing may have surpassed demand growth.
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